[38] 配当投資マイルール My Rules of Dividend Investing

My Rules of Dividend Investing
配当投資マイルール (日本語版。以下の英語版が正式versionです)

①目的：年余に亘って成長すると見込まれる分散されたポートフォリオを築く。
　配当嗜好、配当成長バリュー株ポートフォリオが基本形である。
　配当3.5%以上（税引き後2.5％以上）のポートフォリオがターゲットで、YOC（yield on costs）10％を当面目指す。
②歴史に裏付けられた優良会社に投資する。
　10年以上（25年以上）配当/増配を続ける会社を対象に、inclusion criteriaを当てはめる。
③ランク付けする。
　　　　　　ROA、ROE、debt/equity ratio、PBR、PER、過去PERとの乖離、市場平均PERとの乖離
　　　　　　配当利回り
　　　　　　payout ratio
　　　　　　EPSと配当の成長率
　　　　　　volatility and beta
④買付ルール
⑤ポートフォリオの保持
⑥売却ルール
　　PERが40を超えたら売る。
　　減配あるいは無配になったら売る。


①The objective is to build a diversified portfolio, which has a potential to grow over the long run.
This portfolio is dividend growth oriented.
More than 3.5% dividend (2.5% after tax) is a current target, and the goal is to achieve more than 10% YOC (yield on costs).

②Invest in companies of time-tested quality.

③Inclusion criteria:
Stocks with 10+ years of rising dividends are under my radar. The more years, the better.
Stocks with 25+ years of rising dividends (Dividend Aristocrats) are the best.
Rank stocks by Dividend rate, payout ratio, and growth rate (EPS and dividend).
Always compare to risk-free rate.
Margins of safety:
　　　Wide MOAT
　　　Low payout ratio: means more rooms to grow.
　　　Consistent high growth rate: means to grow fast.
　　　　following "Div + Growth > 7%～14%" rules is aimed under the concept of obtaining 10% YOC as soon as possible.

Dividend < 1.5% is better avoided, but if only the excess cash is at hand, once chew it on.
Dividend < 2.0% may be avoided, wait until downturns or dividend growth.
　　　　　　　　　　　　or included when 5-yr growth is over 12%. (Div + Growth > 14%).
Dividend 2.0% - 2.5% is included when 5-yr growth is over 10%. (Div + Growth > 12%)
Dividend 2.5% - 3.5% is included when 5-yr growth is over 7%. (Div + Growth > 10%)
Dividend 3.5% - 4.0% is included when 5-yr growth is over 5%. (Div + Growth > 8%)
Dividend 4.0% - 5.0% is included when 5-yr growth is over 2-3%. (Div + Growth > 7%)
Dividend > 5.0% is included when EPS is rock-solid
　　　　　　　　and dividend is estimated to grow for another decades. (Div + Growth > 7% rule)


In the name of diversification, dividend stock ETFs such as HDV and VYM, or dividend growth stock ETFs such as SDY and VIG is always the possibilities.

④Buying criteria:
Waiting time is normally up to 6 months.
Invest new money basically in shares with large margin of safety, especially at bargain price.
Criteria for reinvesting dividends is less strict, can be at fair price.
When 2,000 USD is ready, better reinvest automatically than waiting for long.
Investing at high price is better avoided, but if once had, stick to it.
　Basically buying equal weights at start.

⑤Even when above inclusion or buying criteria be altered, don't sell existing stocks, and stick to them through thick and thin.

⑥Selling criteria:
When a company stops dividend.
When a company reduces dividend, think twice.
When a stock is over-valued. (PER more than 40).
When cash is needed, consider selling bonds at first.




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目下の基本運用方針は、こんな感じです↓
　　①基本運用方針-改訂第2版-2015年9月30日
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